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UFC 315 Preview: Main Card Breakdown

2026-03-23|5 min read|By Leverage Editorial

UFC 315 brings a stacked main card this Saturday, and our fight analytics engine has processed thousands of data points across striking accuracy, takedown defense, cardio metrics, and historical style matchups to generate a comprehensive breakdown.

The main event features a classic striker-versus-grappler dynamic, and our model gives the underdog a significantly higher implied probability than the current line suggests. When we isolate fights where the striking differential exceeds 15 significant strikes per round but the grappler has sub-40% takedown accuracy, the striker has won outright 61% of the time in championship rounds.

The co-main offers compelling value on the over for total rounds. Both fighters have gone the distance in four of their last five bouts, and the current line appears to be anchored to a single early stoppage that skews the data. Removing that outlier, the average fight length projects well above the current total.

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