NHL Playoff Odds: Cup Contenders and Dark Horses

The NHL regular season is winding down, and the futures market is starting to reflect the playoff picture. But our model sees meaningful gaps between implied probabilities and true championship equity for several teams.

Goaltending variance is the single biggest factor that separates regular season performance from playoff success. Our model incorporates high-danger save percentage, goals saved above expected, and historical playoff goaltending data to generate more accurate championship probabilities than the market currently reflects.

Two teams in the 20-to-1 range have goaltending profiles and defensive structures that historically correlate with deep playoff runs. Meanwhile, two popular favorites appear overpriced based on their reliance on power play production — a metric that historically regresses by 15-20% in the postseason due to tighter officiating.