Alessandro Costa commands 81% implied win probability with 2-book consensus — this is a market-confirmed lean with minimal disagreement across sportsbooks.

Combat sports produce some of the widest odds differentials — at 81% the market sees a significant skill gap, but upsets at this price range happen 20-30% of the time. The +330 best available on Stewart Nicoll offers strong plus-money if they can execute their game plan.

Market overround at 4.6% is in the normal range with 2 books pricing this game. Confidence level of 73% accounts for the vig-adjusted edge.