The 0.5-point spread combined with a 53/28 moneyline split creates a cushion play. Getting 0.5 points in a game the market prices this tight is the structural edge.

Market split of 53/28 across 10 books with a 0.5-point spread. Home advantage factors into the pricing.

Line shopping is critical here — 45-point odds gap across books means getting the best number adds 13.5% to expected ROI. Best available at FanDuel vs worst creates meaningful EV difference.