Market pricing Cleveland Guardians at 41% implied probability, but the best available line at +152 (FanDuel) offers value beyond what the consensus supports.

Baseball is a moneyline-driven sport where even heavy favorites only win ~60-65% of the time. A 63% implied probability pushes the edge of MLB value — the juice gets steep fast. Line shopping yields a +152 vs +139 range on the dog.

Overround at just 3.8% signals an unusually efficient market — edges here are small but more likely to be real. This is a low-vig environment where the math is reliable.