Market pricing Kansas City Royals at 45% implied probability, but the best available line at +125 (BetMGM) offers value beyond what the consensus supports.

Baseball is a moneyline-driven sport where even heavy favorites only win ~60-65% of the time. The 58/45 split represents a competitive game where underdog value often materializes. Line shopping yields a +125 vs +115 range on the dog.

Overround at just 3.9% signals an unusually efficient market — edges here are small but more likely to be real. This is a low-vig environment where the math is reliable.