Taking the contrarian side here: despite Pat Brown being the public favorite, the 6.1% overround and +900 best line on Vasil Ducar suggest inflated chalk pricing.

Combat sports produce some of the widest odds differentials — at 96% the market sees a significant skill gap, but upsets at this price range happen 20-30% of the time. The +900 best available on Vasil Ducar offers strong plus-money if they can execute their game plan.

Market overround at 6.1% is in the normal range with 3 books pricing this game. Confidence level of 52% accounts for the vig-adjusted edge.